The Pawarification of Indian Politics.

 

Maharashtra State elections have thrown up surprising results, results that have defied all opinion polls and even surprised the winning candidates. Normally, when politicians win, there is wild celebration, this time the celebrations were all but missing.

BJP won 132 seats out 149 that it contested. Eknath Shinde’s break away Shiv Sena won 57 seats out 81 that it contested and the big surprise was Ajit Pawar’s NCP that won 41 out of 59 that it contested. The opinion polls had given Ajit Pawar not more than 13 seats and some had predicted single digit seats for his party.

The government formation was to take place by 26th November but got delayed as the constituents of MahaYuti (BJP-Shinde Sena-Ajit NCP) bickered about ministries and decision on who will become the CM.

Finally, everything was resolved and Devendra Fadnavis took oath as CM, while Eknath Shinde had to take oath as Deputy CM (a climb down for him) and Ajit Pawar was more than happy to become the Deputy CM again.

The swearing in ceremony, attended by who’s-who of Maharashtra, was held on 5th December at Azad Maidain and graced by top leadership of BJP, including Modi and Shah.

Read the article here

The Tale of Two Investigations.

 

 

The Adani group was hit by allegations of serious fraud and account manipulation on 24th January 2023.

The international research group that investigates such frauds and goes short on companies that are perpetrating such frauds released a report and went short on Adani shares.

They predicted an 87% downside to the Adani shares and their word came almost true. Many of the Adani Group companies valuations fell between 50% to 85% before knights in shining armor, like the LIC and SBI came for the resuce, both prompted by the Government of India, led by Narendra Modi.

As is the pattern adopted by Narendra Modi and his colleagues, they went in to damage control. To do this, they somehow got the Supreme Court to take suo-moto cognizance of this fall in share prices. The SC has no business to take such notices as there is an independent authority, the SEBI, which is the market regulator. The SC, led by DY Chandrachud, decided in its own wisdom to come to the ‘rescue’ of Indian Investors. It is pertinent to note that almost 75% to 85% shares were held by Adani and his front companies. So, the biggest impact was on Adani.

This is the Modus Operandi of Narendra Modi Government. When ever it is faced with a problem, it gets the SC to intervene. It did this during the controversy that erupted in the Judge Loya case, it did this in the Zakia Jafri review petition and it did this in the case of crash of Adani Shares. What it does is that it gets the SC to institute an inquiry into the case and then manages to get a favorable verdict. In the Judge Loya case, then CJI Dipak Misra, took over all cases filed anywhere in the country and decided to hear the case himself. He later accepted the oral testimony of four judges who were present with Judge Loya on the night of his death and disregarded all other information that was available in public domain.

In the Adani case too, the SC appointed a six member investigation team, comprising of a retired judge and five prominent businessmen.

This inquiry returned a clean chit for Adani. SEBI, which was also part of the case, then issued a clean chit on its own and said that Adani had not done anything wrong.

It would be interesting to get the transcripts and details of both these investigations.

As Adani had accessed funds from the US Stock Markets, the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) started a parallel investigation based on the allegations of Hindenburg Research’s report.

Along with FBI, it raided the director of Adani Green Energy, Sagar Adani, the nephew of Gautam Adani and confiscated damning evidence that suggested that the company that had raised money in the US had paid almost 250 Million US Dollars to government officials in India as bribes for getting Power Purchase Agreements signed. These PPA would have given the group bumper profits of 2 Billion USD over the agreement period.

The four governments named are the Government of Andhra Pradesh, then led by Jagan Mohan Reddy of YRS Congress, Government of Odisha, then led by Naveen Patnaik, the Government of Tamil Nadu, led by DMK, the Government of Chattisgarh, led by Bhupen Bhagel of Congress and J&K, led by the Governor, who was an appointee of the BJP.

In a press conference, Sambit Patra, the BJP Spokesperson pointed this out and said that no BJP State Government was paid.

What people need to understand is that when Adani is Modi’s man and when no CM in any BJP ruled state is an independent CM, all are puppets of Modi, there was no need to pay anyone in those states. The money would have been already paid to BJP anyway.

The US Department of Justice has now indicted seven people, including Gautam Adani and Sagar Adani and issued arrest warrants for all of them. If prosecuted, everyone faces a 20 year jail term for wire fraud and corruption charges.

There is an option available for the Adani group to accept the wrong doing and settle the mater with SEC. Many companies have done this in the past. I am sure that Adani will take that route rather than face jail. The SEC will impose penalties and give guidelines that can’t be violated. The amount of penalty is usually made public.

If Adani takes that route, then one thing will become clear, that he has accepted his guilt.

What the US DOJ investigation done along with FBI shows is that the investigation done in India was a sham. That the special team was completely compromised, that the SEBI, led by Madhabi Puri Buch was totally compromised and the SC accepted the reports at face value, thus it can’t escape blame for allowing such a fraud from going undetected.

This is the tale of two investigations, one done as a sham and the other done diligently.

The members of the expert committee included former chairman of the State Bank of India O.P. Bhatt, retired Bombay High Court judge Justice J.P. Devadhar, former chief of the New Development Bank of BRIC countries K.V. Kamath, co-founder of Infosys Nandan Nilekani and securities expert and lawyer Somasekhar Sundaresan.

The members of this expert committee should be questioned as to why they were not able to find anything amiss? Madhabi Puri Buch needs to be sacked right away and the records of SEBI investigation should be sought and made public.

Finally, this is another blot of the legacy of former CJI D.Y. Chandrachaud. Not the first, neither the last. As time goes by, more such blots will appear on his legacy.

How do the crooks launder their money?

The easiest way to move money from one place to another, is to move it using the banking channels.

With an account anywhere in the world, money can be moved to any account across the world by doing a transfer.

For example, let us examine the working of a drug cartel.

The drugs are sourced from someone and he has to be paid, probably in cash. If, for example, the drugs are originating from Afghanistan and are being purchased by a syndicate in the US, they have to make payment in cash in Afghanistan while they have to collect the payment from their distributors spread over the entire country.

The distributors in turn have to collect payment from those who sell the stuff on their behalf. Most of the sale happens in cash. 

Thus, the cash has to be collected and sent to the organization.

For this purpose, the agents who sell the drugs set up a business account which is supposedly doing a legitimate business, like a restaurant or a coffee shop. Only thing is that these businesses do not really do the amount of sale that gets deposited in their accounts. So, a restaurant may be just a dummy front which deposits 10,000 USD every day into the account and then makes payment to others from these deposits. That is how cash gets introduced into the legitimate system. Once the cash has entered the banking system, it gets transferred to others, supposedly vendors, who too are fake front accounts.

A gang of distributors used Spotify stream to recently collect money from users and direct it to their bank accounts. Goes without saying that those users were all fake and all payments were received in cash or small payments that go under the radar of any money laundering detection system.

Banks are now using smart software to flag such operations. They detect unusual cash deposits and flag them to the authorities.

I am sure the crooks are already two step ahead of the detecting authorities.

In a way, cash transactions can help detect money laundering better than bank transactions. Thus, for the authorities cash transactions are a necessary evil.

 

The parcel scam and digital arrest.

 

You will receive a call from someone whose display picture shows a man in police uniform. The person calling will talk to you and tell you that they have intercepted a parcel which has your name, address and phone number and it contains contraband. The person will tell you that five passports were found in the parcel along with some foreign currency and a packet of white powder, which after testing has been confirmed to be drugs.

The person will ask you whether this is your parcel.

As it is not your parcel, you will tell him accordingly, he will be sympathetic to your statement but will tell you that as the parcel carries your name, address and phone number, he will now be filing a case against you. Yet, he will say that as he had suspected that you are an innocent victim, he can save you.

For saving you, he will tell you that a certain amount of money needs to be deposited into a designated bank account, which is an official account and then he can release the parcel without any further investigation and till such time he is placing you under 'digital-arrest'. He will tell you that your phone is being monitored and your home and office is being monitored too. He might even do a video call and you will see him standing in a room that looks like it is a police station.

In panic, you will agree to give him the money he is asking for. He might come back and ask you for more until you plead that you have no more to give.

Then he will disappear, without a trace.

This has been happening across the country. Educated people are falling into this trap.

I wonder why Government does not issue a full page advertisement in all language papers about this and warn people about this scam?

Also, I wonder why a single unified number is not being advertised where anyone can call and get clarification in case they are approached by scammers?

It is said that prevention is better than cure, no?

For some people it takes forever to realize that they have been fooled.

 

It has been eight years since 8th November 2016, the day our 'great' leader came on television and 'abolished' 500/1000 Rupee notes.

The reason he gave was that these notes were causing corruption and black money.

When the 5000/ 10,000 rupee notes were demonetized, they were never reintroduced.

It was the Atal Bihari Vajpayee Government that introduced the 500 Rupee notes and later the 1000 Rupee notes.

Normally, when a note is demonetized, it goes out of circulation for ever.

But in our case, our 'great' leader introduced a scheme of 'note-exchange' and his ministers now say that the scheme was not a demonetization scheme but a note-exchange scheme.

And we also saw the sorry spectacle of introduction of a 2000 Rupee note.

The whole exercise was so badly planned that after the demonetization RBI realized that it would take 2 years to replace all 500 Rupee notes even if all the printing presses worked 24/7. Imagine how much time it would have taken had only 100 Rupee note remained as the highest note.

Thus, RBI was forced to issue 2000 Rupee note, which cut down the requirement to 1/4th as four 500 Rupee notes could be replaced with just one 2000 Rupee note.

With its work done, RBI has now withdrawn the 2000 Rupee note in a planned systematic manner.

Can you see the stupidity in the decision itself? If 500/1000 Rupee notes were creating corruption, why 500 Rupee note was reintroduced? And why was a 2000 Rupee note introduced, which was of a higher value than 1000 Rupee note? And then TV anchors told us about the 'hidden' GPS nano-chip that allowed the detection of 2000 Rupee notes via direct communication with satellites! Like Indians are all idiots and fools.

Going back to my original question, how much time does it take people to realize that they have been fooled?

The answer is, Forever. Eight years later and I am sure 20 years later too, there will be many who will continue to believe that demonetization was a grand success and only those with black money suffered, even in the face of evidence that 99.3% of all notes were successfully exchanged, so where is the black money?

They will continue to believe that only those with black money are opposing it, were opposing it, not realizing that only 10% of all money is printed money in circulation.

They will continue to believe that it destroyed Pakistan without understanding the fact that Indian Rupee works only in India and is now useless in almost all countries as it is no longer being even exchanged at airports abroad.

They will continue to believe that terrorism has been reduced in Kashmir, without bothering to see reports of soldiers, civilians and policemen killed in Kashmir since then.

They will continue to believe that corruption has ended, while the truth is that it has become worst.

They will continue to believe that Modi is a great leader while actually he is a charlatan.

Why Government is buying gold but asking you to buy Gold Bonds?

Government of India has been buying gold, physical gold.

It recently bought gold taking its own holding of the yellow metal to almost 10% of its foreign currency reserves.

As per RBI reports, India now holds physical gold worth around 70 Billion US Dollars.

While on the one hand government has been buying gold on the other it has been telling people not to buy physical gold, instead buy Gold Bonds.

It even offers interest on these Gold Bonds.

Does this not raise any questions in your mind? Why Government itself is buying Gold and asking you to buy Gold Bonds?

Gold is considered a hedge against change in currency values, but why do currency values change?

There are many reasons for a currencies value to change, one of them being reckless issue of currency.

Under the Obama Administration, US Debt was around 16.4 Trillion USD.

Currently this figure stands at 31.4 Trillion. In seven years, after Obama's presidency ended in Jan 2017, the US Debt has grown by more than 100%.

Same can be seen in India. Money supply in the system has more than doubled since December 2016 till December 2023 and continues to rise.

In basic economics, if the supply of a commodity (and money is now a commodity, actually was always a commodity), rises, its price / value automatically falls.

Thus when money supply rises anywhere in the world, as we are now a more connected economy than previous times, value of currency falls.

Gold value is reflected in this rise and fall of currency value.

As nations create money out of thin air, backed by debt instruments, the value of money has been falling.

There is a fear in those who hold this paper money, which is more like funny money now, that the value of such money can fall to zero leading to losses.

Thus people buy gold as a hedge to this risk and also as a hedge to inflation. Gold prices rise in tune with inflation.

Whenever there is uncertainty in the world, a war like atmosphere, a war in progress, people rush to gold as a safe haven and a store of value.

So, coming back to the question, why government is buying gold and asking you not to buy?

The reason is that any purchase by the government can be pledged to raise foreign exchange while when you buy gold there is a direct drain of foreign exchange from the country's reserves.

That is why Government wants to buy gold but wants you to buy bonds, which are nothing but paper in exchange of paper and therefore does not lead to US Dollars going out of the country.

The Government Gold Bond scheme also creates problems for the Government as it has to either redeem the bonds with physical gold, leading to outflow of foreign exchange (eventually) or it has to pay you the value in Rupees. As gold prices rise, the government ends up paying a hefty premium to gold bond holders which is beyond the normal return on any deposits.

If you are a true patriot, buy Gold Bonds. For me, I don't trust the government and I would go with physical gold, not jewelry but gold coins and bars....

Cyber Frauds are on the rise, beware.

 

Methods of Cyber Fraud and Real-World Examples:

1. Phishing:

   • Phishing involves tricking users into providing personal information through fake emails or websites.
   • Example: In 2019, the "Cozy Bear" group, a cyber espionage outfit, conducted phishing attacks targeting the U.S. and European governments, leading to information leaks.

2. Hacking and Unauthorized Access:

   • This involves breaking into systems to steal data or cause damage.
   • Example: The 2017 Equifax breach in the U.S., where hackers exploited vulnerabilities to access personal data of nearly 148 million individuals.

3. Identity Theft:

   • Criminals steal someone's identity to conduct unauthorized activities, usually financial.
   • Example: In India, cases of Aadhaar (national ID) identity theft were reported in 2018, with stolen identities used to apply for loans.

4. Malware Attacks:

   • Malware can infect systems, allowing fraudsters to capture data or extort money.
   • Example: The "WannaCry" ransomware attack of 2017 affected organizations globally, including the NHS in the UK.

5. Online Financial Fraud:

   • Includes fake online transactions, credit card fraud, and bank frauds.
   • Example: In 2020, an elaborate online banking fraud scheme in Nigeria and the UAE targeted financial institutions, resulting in millions in losses.

Each of these methods emphasizes the need for robust cybersecurity practices and increased user awareness across the globe.

India has seen numerous cyber fraud cases that have affected both domestic and international victims. Here are some notable cases, including infamous call center scams and misuse of Google Ads to promote fraudulent tech support:

1. Call Center Scams Targeting Seniors for Tech Support

• Overview: Scammers posing as tech support agents from companies like Microsoft, Apple, or Dell contact victims, often senior citizens in Western countries, claiming that their computers have viruses or security issues.
• Method: These callers instruct the victims to purchase gift cards (like iTunes, Google Play, or other retail cards) and read the codes over the phone to “pay” for the supposed tech support services. Some also request remote access to the victims’ computers, allowing them to steal additional sensitive information.
• Example: In 2018, the FBI and Indian police uncovered a large call center operation in Mumbai where employees were targeting American seniors, earning millions through gift card payments.
• Impact: Thousands of seniors were scammed, many of whom lost their life savings. Scammers often threatened legal action or pretended that failing to pay would result in the victim’s computer or data being compromised.

2. Fake Tech Support via Google Ads

• Overview: Fraudsters used Google Ads to promote fake customer support numbers for popular software companies like Microsoft, QuickBooks, and Apple. When users searched for official support, these ads would appear at the top of the search results.
• Method: Users calling these numbers would be connected to scammers pretending to be official representatives. Victims were charged for non-existent issues or “subscription renewals” and instructed to make payments via online transactions or gift cards.
• Example: In 2019, authorities dismantled a large fraud network in Delhi that was using this technique to deceive customers in the U.S. and Canada, generating millions in illicit revenue.
• Impact: Victims were not only financially exploited but also, in some cases, exposed to malware after granting remote access to their devices.

3. OLX and Online Marketplace Frauds

• Overview: Scammers impersonate sellers or buyers on online marketplaces like OLX. They lure victims by offering good deals on products, requesting partial payments in advance, or posing as potential buyers who require a security deposit.
• Method: Scammers often use UPI (Unified Payments Interface) apps and other digital wallets, which enable fast, nearly untraceable transfers.
• Example: In recent years, several gangs based in Jamtara, Jharkhand, gained notoriety for targeting buyers across India. A gang member would pose as a seller, share fake screenshots, and disappear after receiving partial payments.
• Impact: Victims lose small to large sums, depending on the nature of the transaction, and scammers remain difficult to trace.

4. Loan Application Scams

• Overview: Fraudsters developed fake loan applications targeting people needing quick cash. These apps promised fast loans but instead requested access to personal data and photos, later using these to harass and blackmail the victims.
• Method: Scammers demanded higher repayments and threatened victims with exposure of their private information if they didn’t comply.
• Example: In 2020, the Hyderabad police uncovered a ring that operated over 30 apps offering fraudulent loan services.
• Impact: Victims suffered severe financial and psychological stress, often paying far more than they initially borrowed.

5. Sextortion and Honey Trap Scams

• Overview: Scammers create fake profiles on social media or dating sites and engage with potential victims to extract compromising information or photos.
• Method: The fraudsters then blackmail victims by threatening to leak the images unless a ransom is paid.
• Example: In one 2019 case, a businessman from Bengaluru fell prey to a sextortion scam, losing ₹15 lakh (around $20,000) before realizing he was being scammed.
• Impact: Many victims suffer immense emotional distress and sometimes endure severe financial losses.

These scams highlight the growing sophistication of cyber fraud in India, where operations often involve cross-border elements and take advantage of digital advertising, payment platforms, and users’ lack of technical knowledge. The government, law enforcement, and tech companies are increasingly collaborating to shut down these operations, but the complexity of these frauds remains a significant challenge.

AI voice cloning is increasingly being exploited in cyber fraud, creating new challenges for businesses and individuals worldwide. By using machine learning models, scammers can clone a person’s voice with just a few samples, allowing them to impersonate victims with striking accuracy. Here’s a detailed look at how AI voice cloning is being used to commit cyber fraud:

1. Business Email Compromise (BEC) Fraud with Voice Verification

• How It Works: Scammers target companies with this technique, typically impersonating senior executives or financial officers. Once they have samples of an executive’s voice—possibly from online interviews, earnings calls, or public speeches—they use AI tools to clone the voice.
• Method: The scammer calls an employee, such as an accountant, posing as the executive. They request urgent money transfers to a designated account, often claiming a confidential or high-stakes situation. Given the convincing voice clone, employees may not suspect fraud.
• Example: In 2019, a British energy company was defrauded of €220,000 ($243,000) when a scammer, using AI voice cloning, impersonated the CEO of the firm’s German parent company and requested an emergency transfer.

2. Financial Scams Targeting Individuals

• How It Works: Voice cloning is used to target high-net-worth individuals or elderly people in what is known as "vishing" (voice phishing). The cloned voice, often of a loved one, is used to request urgent financial assistance or convince victims to disclose sensitive information.
• Method: Scammers call the target, posing as a family member or friend in immediate distress, asking for money to be transferred urgently to a specific account. The familiarity of the voice makes the call highly persuasive.
• Example: In Canada, a senior was tricked into wiring $15,000 to scammers impersonating his son using a cloned voice. The son’s voice was replicated from social media posts and brief video clips, convincing the victim of the scam’s authenticity.

3. Ransom and Extortion Schemes

• How It Works: Scammers use cloned voices to simulate fake kidnappings or other emergencies, calling family members and demanding ransom payments.
• Method: The scammers use the cloned voice to convey a sense of urgency and panic, often in high-stress situations where critical thinking may be impaired. Victims are pressured to make payments quickly, under the belief that their loved one’s life is at risk.
• Example: In Mexico, there have been cases where criminals used cloned voices of family members to demand ransom payments in fake kidnapping schemes, creating panic and forcing family members to comply quickly.

4. Social Engineering for Financial Account Takeovers

• How It Works: Voice cloning helps scammers overcome voice-verification steps in banks and financial institutions where voice recognition is used as part of multi-factor authentication (MFA).
• Method: Scammers gather voice samples of the account holder, replicate the voice, and call the bank’s customer service to gain access. With enough personal information and a cloned voice, they can sometimes bypass security checks.
• Example: Several reported cases in the U.S. indicate that voice cloning has been used to bypass voice-based security protocols, resulting in account takeovers where money was withdrawn or transferred to fraudulent accounts.

5. Targeting Customer Support Systems Using Voice Authentication

• How It Works: Many companies use voice authentication for customer support, making it a prime target for scammers equipped with voice-cloning technology.
• Method: With a cloned voice, scammers can trick customer support into allowing account changes or authorizing transactions. By pretending to be the legitimate customer, they can request password resets or modify security details.
• Example: In one case, scammers targeted a telecom company’s customer support line, using a cloned voice to reset passwords for email and financial accounts, effectively taking control of the victim's digital identity.

Preventive Measures and Challenges

• Voice Biometrics Improvement: Companies are improving voice biometrics to detect subtle discrepancies in synthesized voices. However, it’s a race against the increasingly sophisticated algorithms used in voice cloning.
• Employee Training and Awareness: For businesses, educating employees about such threats and encouraging confirmation via multiple channels (e.g., verifying unusual requests through emails or personal meetings) can help prevent BEC scams.
• Multi-Factor Authentication: For both companies and individuals, multi-factor authentication (including something other than voice verification) is essential to counter voice-cloning risks.

AI voice cloning has added a new, challenging layer to cyber fraud by leveraging AI's ability to recreate voices with high fidelity. With voice verification becoming common for both personal and professional transactions, it’s essential for both organizations and individuals to remain vigilant and adopt robust authentication protocols that go beyond voice alone.