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Monday, December 09, 2024

The Pawarification of Indian Politics.


 

Maharashtra State elections have thrown up surprising results, results that have defied all opinion polls and even surprised the winning candidates. Normally, when politicians win, there is wild celebration, this time the celebrations were all but missing.

BJP won 132 seats out 149 that it contested. Eknath Shinde’s break away Shiv Sena won 57 seats out 81 that it contested and the big surprise was Ajit Pawar’s NCP that won 41 out of 59 that it contested. The opinion polls had given Ajit Pawar not more than 13 seats and some had predicted single digit seats for his party.

The government formation was to take place by 26th November but got delayed as the constituents of MahaYuti (BJP-Shinde Sena-Ajit NCP) bickered about ministries and decision on who will become the CM.

Finally, everything was resolved and Devendra Fadnavis took oath as CM, while Eknath Shinde had to take oath as Deputy CM (a climb down for him) and Ajit Pawar was more than happy to become the Deputy CM again.

The swearing in ceremony, attended by who’s-who of Maharashtra, was held on 5th December at Azad Maidain and graced by top leadership of BJP, including Modi and Shah.

Read the article here

Friday, November 22, 2024

The Tale of Two Investigations.

 

 

The Adani group was hit by allegations of serious fraud and account manipulation on 24th January 2023.

The international research group that investigates such frauds and goes short on companies that are perpetrating such frauds released a report and went short on Adani shares.

They predicted an 87% downside to the Adani shares and their word came almost true. Many of the Adani Group companies valuations fell between 50% to 85% before knights in shining armor, like the LIC and SBI came for the resuce, both prompted by the Government of India, led by Narendra Modi.

As is the pattern adopted by Narendra Modi and his colleagues, they went in to damage control. To do this, they somehow got the Supreme Court to take suo-moto cognizance of this fall in share prices. The SC has no business to take such notices as there is an independent authority, the SEBI, which is the market regulator. The SC, led by DY Chandrachud, decided in its own wisdom to come to the ‘rescue’ of Indian Investors. It is pertinent to note that almost 75% to 85% shares were held by Adani and his front companies. So, the biggest impact was on Adani.

This is the Modus Operandi of Narendra Modi Government. When ever it is faced with a problem, it gets the SC to intervene. It did this during the controversy that erupted in the Judge Loya case, it did this in the Zakia Jafri review petition and it did this in the case of crash of Adani Shares. What it does is that it gets the SC to institute an inquiry into the case and then manages to get a favorable verdict. In the Judge Loya case, then CJI Dipak Misra, took over all cases filed anywhere in the country and decided to hear the case himself. He later accepted the oral testimony of four judges who were present with Judge Loya on the night of his death and disregarded all other information that was available in public domain.

In the Adani case too, the SC appointed a six member investigation team, comprising of a retired judge and five prominent businessmen.

This inquiry returned a clean chit for Adani. SEBI, which was also part of the case, then issued a clean chit on its own and said that Adani had not done anything wrong.

It would be interesting to get the transcripts and details of both these investigations.

As Adani had accessed funds from the US Stock Markets, the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) started a parallel investigation based on the allegations of Hindenburg Research’s report.

Along with FBI, it raided the director of Adani Green Energy, Sagar Adani, the nephew of Gautam Adani and confiscated damning evidence that suggested that the company that had raised money in the US had paid almost 250 Million US Dollars to government officials in India as bribes for getting Power Purchase Agreements signed. These PPA would have given the group bumper profits of 2 Billion USD over the agreement period.

The four governments named are the Government of Andhra Pradesh, then led by Jagan Mohan Reddy of YRS Congress, Government of Odisha, then led by Naveen Patnaik, the Government of Tamil Nadu, led by DMK, the Government of Chattisgarh, led by Bhupen Bhagel of Congress and J&K, led by the Governor, who was an appointee of the BJP.

In a press conference, Sambit Patra, the BJP Spokesperson pointed this out and said that no BJP State Government was paid.

What people need to understand is that when Adani is Modi’s man and when no CM in any BJP ruled state is an independent CM, all are puppets of Modi, there was no need to pay anyone in those states. The money would have been already paid to BJP anyway.

The US Department of Justice has now indicted seven people, including Gautam Adani and Sagar Adani and issued arrest warrants for all of them. If prosecuted, everyone faces a 20 year jail term for wire fraud and corruption charges.

There is an option available for the Adani group to accept the wrong doing and settle the mater with SEC. Many companies have done this in the past. I am sure that Adani will take that route rather than face jail. The SEC will impose penalties and give guidelines that can’t be violated. The amount of penalty is usually made public.

If Adani takes that route, then one thing will become clear, that he has accepted his guilt.

What the US DOJ investigation done along with FBI shows is that the investigation done in India was a sham. That the special team was completely compromised, that the SEBI, led by Madhabi Puri Buch was totally compromised and the SC accepted the reports at face value, thus it can’t escape blame for allowing such a fraud from going undetected.

This is the tale of two investigations, one done as a sham and the other done diligently.

The members of the expert committee included former chairman of the State Bank of India O.P. Bhatt, retired Bombay High Court judge Justice J.P. Devadhar, former chief of the New Development Bank of BRIC countries K.V. Kamath, co-founder of Infosys Nandan Nilekani and securities expert and lawyer Somasekhar Sundaresan.

The members of this expert committee should be questioned as to why they were not able to find anything amiss? Madhabi Puri Buch needs to be sacked right away and the records of SEBI investigation should be sought and made public.

Finally, this is another blot of the legacy of former CJI D.Y. Chandrachaud. Not the first, neither the last. As time goes by, more such blots will appear on his legacy.

Tuesday, November 19, 2024

How do the crooks launder their money?

https://www.investopedia.com/thmb/GRaMLOMJUxyvSkzYqILJLr8qC50=/1500x0/filters:no_upscale():max_bytes(150000):strip_icc()/money-laudering-6cb10f0b844d460a99ab04b349da29ae.png

The easiest way to move money from one place to another, is to move it using the banking channels.

With an account anywhere in the world, money can be moved to any account across the world by doing a transfer.

For example, let us examine the working of a drug cartel.

The drugs are sourced from someone and he has to be paid, probably in cash. If, for example, the drugs are originating from Afghanistan and are being purchased by a syndicate in the US, they have to make payment in cash in Afghanistan while they have to collect the payment from their distributors spread over the entire country.

The distributors in turn have to collect payment from those who sell the stuff on their behalf. Most of the sale happens in cash. 

Thus, the cash has to be collected and sent to the organization.

For this purpose, the agents who sell the drugs set up a business account which is supposedly doing a legitimate business, like a restaurant or a coffee shop. Only thing is that these businesses do not really do the amount of sale that gets deposited in their accounts. So, a restaurant may be just a dummy front which deposits 10,000 USD every day into the account and then makes payment to others from these deposits. That is how cash gets introduced into the legitimate system. Once the cash has entered the banking system, it gets transferred to others, supposedly vendors, who too are fake front accounts.

A gang of distributors used Spotify stream to recently collect money from users and direct it to their bank accounts. Goes without saying that those users were all fake and all payments were received in cash or small payments that go under the radar of any money laundering detection system.

Banks are now using smart software to flag such operations. They detect unusual cash deposits and flag them to the authorities.

I am sure the crooks are already two step ahead of the detecting authorities.

In a way, cash transactions can help detect money laundering better than bank transactions. Thus, for the authorities cash transactions are a necessary evil.

 


Saturday, November 09, 2024

The parcel scam and digital arrest.


 

You will receive a call from someone whose display picture shows a man in police uniform. The person calling will talk to you and tell you that they have intercepted a parcel which has your name, address and phone number and it contains contraband. The person will tell you that five passports were found in the parcel along with some foreign currency and a packet of white powder, which after testing has been confirmed to be drugs.

The person will ask you whether this is your parcel.

As it is not your parcel, you will tell him accordingly, he will be sympathetic to your statement but will tell you that as the parcel carries your name, address and phone number, he will now be filing a case against you. Yet, he will say that as he had suspected that you are an innocent victim, he can save you.

For saving you, he will tell you that a certain amount of money needs to be deposited into a designated bank account, which is an official account and then he can release the parcel without any further investigation and till such time he is placing you under 'digital-arrest'. He will tell you that your phone is being monitored and your home and office is being monitored too. He might even do a video call and you will see him standing in a room that looks like it is a police station.

In panic, you will agree to give him the money he is asking for. He might come back and ask you for more until you plead that you have no more to give.

Then he will disappear, without a trace.

This has been happening across the country. Educated people are falling into this trap.

I wonder why Government does not issue a full page advertisement in all language papers about this and warn people about this scam?

Also, I wonder why a single unified number is not being advertised where anyone can call and get clarification in case they are approached by scammers?

It is said that prevention is better than cure, no?

For some people it takes forever to realize that they have been fooled.

 

It has been eight years since 8th November 2016, the day our 'great' leader came on television and 'abolished' 500/1000 Rupee notes.

The reason he gave was that these notes were causing corruption and black money.

When the 5000/ 10,000 rupee notes were demonetized, they were never reintroduced.

It was the Atal Bihari Vajpayee Government that introduced the 500 Rupee notes and later the 1000 Rupee notes.

Normally, when a note is demonetized, it goes out of circulation for ever.

But in our case, our 'great' leader introduced a scheme of 'note-exchange' and his ministers now say that the scheme was not a demonetization scheme but a note-exchange scheme.

And we also saw the sorry spectacle of introduction of a 2000 Rupee note.

The whole exercise was so badly planned that after the demonetization RBI realized that it would take 2 years to replace all 500 Rupee notes even if all the printing presses worked 24/7. Imagine how much time it would have taken had only 100 Rupee note remained as the highest note.

Thus, RBI was forced to issue 2000 Rupee note, which cut down the requirement to 1/4th as four 500 Rupee notes could be replaced with just one 2000 Rupee note.

With its work done, RBI has now withdrawn the 2000 Rupee note in a planned systematic manner.

Can you see the stupidity in the decision itself? If 500/1000 Rupee notes were creating corruption, why 500 Rupee note was reintroduced? And why was a 2000 Rupee note introduced, which was of a higher value than 1000 Rupee note? And then TV anchors told us about the 'hidden' GPS nano-chip that allowed the detection of 2000 Rupee notes via direct communication with satellites! Like Indians are all idiots and fools.

Going back to my original question, how much time does it take people to realize that they have been fooled?

The answer is, Forever. Eight years later and I am sure 20 years later too, there will be many who will continue to believe that demonetization was a grand success and only those with black money suffered, even in the face of evidence that 99.3% of all notes were successfully exchanged, so where is the black money?

They will continue to believe that only those with black money are opposing it, were opposing it, not realizing that only 10% of all money is printed money in circulation.

They will continue to believe that it destroyed Pakistan without understanding the fact that Indian Rupee works only in India and is now useless in almost all countries as it is no longer being even exchanged at airports abroad.

They will continue to believe that terrorism has been reduced in Kashmir, without bothering to see reports of soldiers, civilians and policemen killed in Kashmir since then.

They will continue to believe that corruption has ended, while the truth is that it has become worst.

They will continue to believe that Modi is a great leader while actually he is a charlatan.

Wednesday, October 30, 2024

Why Government is buying gold but asking you to buy Gold Bonds?

RBI transfers 100 tonnes of gold from UK to domestic vaults: Report

Government of India has been buying gold, physical gold.

It recently bought gold taking its own holding of the yellow metal to almost 10% of its foreign currency reserves.

As per RBI reports, India now holds physical gold worth around 70 Billion US Dollars.

While on the one hand government has been buying gold on the other it has been telling people not to buy physical gold, instead buy Gold Bonds.

It even offers interest on these Gold Bonds.

Does this not raise any questions in your mind? Why Government itself is buying Gold and asking you to buy Gold Bonds?

Gold is considered a hedge against change in currency values, but why do currency values change?

There are many reasons for a currencies value to change, one of them being reckless issue of currency.

Under the Obama Administration, US Debt was around 16.4 Trillion USD.

Currently this figure stands at 31.4 Trillion. In seven years, after Obama's presidency ended in Jan 2017, the US Debt has grown by more than 100%.

Same can be seen in India. Money supply in the system has more than doubled since December 2016 till December 2023 and continues to rise.

In basic economics, if the supply of a commodity (and money is now a commodity, actually was always a commodity), rises, its price / value automatically falls.

Thus when money supply rises anywhere in the world, as we are now a more connected economy than previous times, value of currency falls.

Gold value is reflected in this rise and fall of currency value.

As nations create money out of thin air, backed by debt instruments, the value of money has been falling.

There is a fear in those who hold this paper money, which is more like funny money now, that the value of such money can fall to zero leading to losses.

Thus people buy gold as a hedge to this risk and also as a hedge to inflation. Gold prices rise in tune with inflation.

Whenever there is uncertainty in the world, a war like atmosphere, a war in progress, people rush to gold as a safe haven and a store of value.

So, coming back to the question, why government is buying gold and asking you not to buy?

The reason is that any purchase by the government can be pledged to raise foreign exchange while when you buy gold there is a direct drain of foreign exchange from the country's reserves.

That is why Government wants to buy gold but wants you to buy bonds, which are nothing but paper in exchange of paper and therefore does not lead to US Dollars going out of the country.

The Government Gold Bond scheme also creates problems for the Government as it has to either redeem the bonds with physical gold, leading to outflow of foreign exchange (eventually) or it has to pay you the value in Rupees. As gold prices rise, the government ends up paying a hefty premium to gold bond holders which is beyond the normal return on any deposits.

If you are a true patriot, buy Gold Bonds. For me, I don't trust the government and I would go with physical gold, not jewelry but gold coins and bars....

Tuesday, October 29, 2024

Cyber Frauds are on the rise, beware.


 



Methods of Cyber Fraud and Real-World Examples:

  1. Phishing:

    • Phishing involves tricking users into providing personal information through fake emails or websites.
    • Example: In 2019, the "Cozy Bear" group, a cyber espionage outfit, conducted phishing attacks targeting the U.S. and European governments, leading to information leaks.
  2. Hacking and Unauthorized Access:

    • This involves breaking into systems to steal data or cause damage.
    • Example: The 2017 Equifax breach in the U.S., where hackers exploited vulnerabilities to access personal data of nearly 148 million individuals.
  3. Identity Theft:

    • Criminals steal someone's identity to conduct unauthorized activities, usually financial.
    • Example: In India, cases of Aadhaar (national ID) identity theft were reported in 2018, with stolen identities used to apply for loans.
  4. Malware Attacks:

    • Malware can infect systems, allowing fraudsters to capture data or extort money.
    • Example: The "WannaCry" ransomware attack of 2017 affected organizations globally, including the NHS in the UK.
  5. Online Financial Fraud:

    • Includes fake online transactions, credit card fraud, and bank frauds.
    • Example: In 2020, an elaborate online banking fraud scheme in Nigeria and the UAE targeted financial institutions, resulting in millions in losses.

Each of these methods emphasizes the need for robust cybersecurity practices and increased user awareness across the globe.

India has seen numerous cyber fraud cases that have affected both domestic and international victims. Here are some notable cases, including infamous call center scams and misuse of Google Ads to promote fraudulent tech support:

1. Call Center Scams Targeting Seniors for Tech Support

  • Overview: Scammers posing as tech support agents from companies like Microsoft, Apple, or Dell contact victims, often senior citizens in Western countries, claiming that their computers have viruses or security issues.
  • Method: These callers instruct the victims to purchase gift cards (like iTunes, Google Play, or other retail cards) and read the codes over the phone to “pay” for the supposed tech support services. Some also request remote access to the victims’ computers, allowing them to steal additional sensitive information.
  • Example: In 2018, the FBI and Indian police uncovered a large call center operation in Mumbai where employees were targeting American seniors, earning millions through gift card payments.
  • Impact: Thousands of seniors were scammed, many of whom lost their life savings. Scammers often threatened legal action or pretended that failing to pay would result in the victim’s computer or data being compromised.

2. Fake Tech Support via Google Ads

  • Overview: Fraudsters used Google Ads to promote fake customer support numbers for popular software companies like Microsoft, QuickBooks, and Apple. When users searched for official support, these ads would appear at the top of the search results.
  • Method: Users calling these numbers would be connected to scammers pretending to be official representatives. Victims were charged for non-existent issues or “subscription renewals” and instructed to make payments via online transactions or gift cards.
  • Example: In 2019, authorities dismantled a large fraud network in Delhi that was using this technique to deceive customers in the U.S. and Canada, generating millions in illicit revenue.
  • Impact: Victims were not only financially exploited but also, in some cases, exposed to malware after granting remote access to their devices.

3. OLX and Online Marketplace Frauds

  • Overview: Scammers impersonate sellers or buyers on online marketplaces like OLX. They lure victims by offering good deals on products, requesting partial payments in advance, or posing as potential buyers who require a security deposit.
  • Method: Scammers often use UPI (Unified Payments Interface) apps and other digital wallets, which enable fast, nearly untraceable transfers.
  • Example: In recent years, several gangs based in Jamtara, Jharkhand, gained notoriety for targeting buyers across India. A gang member would pose as a seller, share fake screenshots, and disappear after receiving partial payments.
  • Impact: Victims lose small to large sums, depending on the nature of the transaction, and scammers remain difficult to trace.

4. Loan Application Scams

  • Overview: Fraudsters developed fake loan applications targeting people needing quick cash. These apps promised fast loans but instead requested access to personal data and photos, later using these to harass and blackmail the victims.
  • Method: Scammers demanded higher repayments and threatened victims with exposure of their private information if they didn’t comply.
  • Example: In 2020, the Hyderabad police uncovered a ring that operated over 30 apps offering fraudulent loan services.
  • Impact: Victims suffered severe financial and psychological stress, often paying far more than they initially borrowed.

5. Sextortion and Honey Trap Scams

  • Overview: Scammers create fake profiles on social media or dating sites and engage with potential victims to extract compromising information or photos.
  • Method: The fraudsters then blackmail victims by threatening to leak the images unless a ransom is paid.
  • Example: In one 2019 case, a businessman from Bengaluru fell prey to a sextortion scam, losing ₹15 lakh (around $20,000) before realizing he was being scammed.
  • Impact: Many victims suffer immense emotional distress and sometimes endure severe financial losses.

These scams highlight the growing sophistication of cyber fraud in India, where operations often involve cross-border elements and take advantage of digital advertising, payment platforms, and users’ lack of technical knowledge. The government, law enforcement, and tech companies are increasingly collaborating to shut down these operations, but the complexity of these frauds remains a significant challenge.

AI voice cloning is increasingly being exploited in cyber fraud, creating new challenges for businesses and individuals worldwide. By using machine learning models, scammers can clone a person’s voice with just a few samples, allowing them to impersonate victims with striking accuracy. Here’s a detailed look at how AI voice cloning is being used to commit cyber fraud:

1. Business Email Compromise (BEC) Fraud with Voice Verification

  • How It Works: Scammers target companies with this technique, typically impersonating senior executives or financial officers. Once they have samples of an executive’s voice—possibly from online interviews, earnings calls, or public speeches—they use AI tools to clone the voice.
  • Method: The scammer calls an employee, such as an accountant, posing as the executive. They request urgent money transfers to a designated account, often claiming a confidential or high-stakes situation. Given the convincing voice clone, employees may not suspect fraud.
  • Example: In 2019, a British energy company was defrauded of €220,000 ($243,000) when a scammer, using AI voice cloning, impersonated the CEO of the firm’s German parent company and requested an emergency transfer.

2. Financial Scams Targeting Individuals

  • How It Works: Voice cloning is used to target high-net-worth individuals or elderly people in what is known as "vishing" (voice phishing). The cloned voice, often of a loved one, is used to request urgent financial assistance or convince victims to disclose sensitive information.
  • Method: Scammers call the target, posing as a family member or friend in immediate distress, asking for money to be transferred urgently to a specific account. The familiarity of the voice makes the call highly persuasive.
  • Example: In Canada, a senior was tricked into wiring $15,000 to scammers impersonating his son using a cloned voice. The son’s voice was replicated from social media posts and brief video clips, convincing the victim of the scam’s authenticity.

3. Ransom and Extortion Schemes

  • How It Works: Scammers use cloned voices to simulate fake kidnappings or other emergencies, calling family members and demanding ransom payments.
  • Method: The scammers use the cloned voice to convey a sense of urgency and panic, often in high-stress situations where critical thinking may be impaired. Victims are pressured to make payments quickly, under the belief that their loved one’s life is at risk.
  • Example: In Mexico, there have been cases where criminals used cloned voices of family members to demand ransom payments in fake kidnapping schemes, creating panic and forcing family members to comply quickly.

4. Social Engineering for Financial Account Takeovers

  • How It Works: Voice cloning helps scammers overcome voice-verification steps in banks and financial institutions where voice recognition is used as part of multi-factor authentication (MFA).
  • Method: Scammers gather voice samples of the account holder, replicate the voice, and call the bank’s customer service to gain access. With enough personal information and a cloned voice, they can sometimes bypass security checks.
  • Example: Several reported cases in the U.S. indicate that voice cloning has been used to bypass voice-based security protocols, resulting in account takeovers where money was withdrawn or transferred to fraudulent accounts.

5. Targeting Customer Support Systems Using Voice Authentication

  • How It Works: Many companies use voice authentication for customer support, making it a prime target for scammers equipped with voice-cloning technology.
  • Method: With a cloned voice, scammers can trick customer support into allowing account changes or authorizing transactions. By pretending to be the legitimate customer, they can request password resets or modify security details.
  • Example: In one case, scammers targeted a telecom company’s customer support line, using a cloned voice to reset passwords for email and financial accounts, effectively taking control of the victim's digital identity.

Preventive Measures and Challenges

  • Voice Biometrics Improvement: Companies are improving voice biometrics to detect subtle discrepancies in synthesized voices. However, it’s a race against the increasingly sophisticated algorithms used in voice cloning.
  • Employee Training and Awareness: For businesses, educating employees about such threats and encouraging confirmation via multiple channels (e.g., verifying unusual requests through emails or personal meetings) can help prevent BEC scams.
  • Multi-Factor Authentication: For both companies and individuals, multi-factor authentication (including something other than voice verification) is essential to counter voice-cloning risks.

AI voice cloning has added a new, challenging layer to cyber fraud by leveraging AI's ability to recreate voices with high fidelity. With voice verification becoming common for both personal and professional transactions, it’s essential for both organizations and individuals to remain vigilant and adopt robust authentication protocols that go beyond voice alone.

 

 

 

Monday, October 28, 2024

How can legit businesses even compete with street vendors?


My wife ran a small eatery for 17 years.

During this time we had'

  • A Shops and Establishment License.
  • A Fire Safety Certification and License.
  • A FSSAI License
  • A Food License (before FSSAI came into play)
  • A Municipal Corporation License
  • A Lease deed for the shop
  • No Child labor


We were paying rent which included property tax and also maintenance (although paid by the owner, he was recovering it from us in the rent).

After this, we were subject to administration by the society and had to take care of our own garbage.

Before demonetization we had a staff compliment of 10 people including two family members.

After demonetization, the business went down and we reduced staff to four people including one family member.

Last year, in June 2023, we closed down the business as the owner doubled the rent from existing 18,000 (for a 200 sq ft shop) to 35,000/-

Compare this with a road side vendor.
In most cases none of them have an FSSAI license or registration.

  • They have no Shops and Establishment License.
  • They have no Fire Safety certification or license.
  • They have no Municipal Corporation sanction or license.
  • They leave their garbage on the road at the end of the shift.
  • Generally employ child labor.


They have protection from local politician and local goons. They pay a daily hawker fees of 50-100 Rupees and another 100 perhaps in bribes.

They have no rent to pay. They are not subject to any inspection.

And they carry on their business right outside any popular store.

At the end of the day, people often compare prices not realizing that it is not a level playing field.

While I have nothing against anyone trying to earn an honest living but what about those who are operating within the legal framework and are accountable if things go wrong?

The street vendor will run away if there is a fire or an explosion. He will not be held responsible if you fall sick or there is food poisoning. He is not paying any rent and creating the most amount of garbage on the roads.

Yet, everyone wants to support them, leaders go their vends and are seen eating or drinking tea from such vends.

What kind of message are our leaders sending?

As SC strikes down use of Aadhar for Date of Birth, Address, questions arise about it.

 

Apply for an Aadhar Card Online
What is the Aadhar Card?

Aadhar Card was created as a reliable document for direct transfer of benefits from the Government to the deserving.

It was created under the Aadhar Act.

The purpose of this card was to ensure that the subsidies released by government for its various schemes reached the beneficiary directly and that no one else could take any money out of it.

Thus a person working under MNREGS (Mahatma Gandhi Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme) for 100 days as guaranteed under MNREGA would get the money in his / her bank account or be paid only on presentation of Aadhar Card with bio-metrics locked into the number.

Thus, the only purpose of Aadhar card was to ensure correct delivery of subsidies.

It was essentially meant for those below Poverty Line and who take subsidized items from the Government. Like Ration, Gas, Kerosene, etc.

Somewhere down the line, someone decided that every Indian should have an Aadhar Card. Thus a campaign was mounted and pressure applied to get people to get Aadhar Card made even when they were not taking any subsidies.

This was later struck down by the SC in a judgement where it said that Aadhar Card is required only under the Aadhar Act and no one else who did not take subsidies need to have an Aadhar Card.

Aadhar Card was created based on your existing documents, thus if someone produced five sets of fake documents, he could have technically created five Aadhar Cards as this did not involve any cross checking of the submitted documents.

Aadhar card is now recognized as not good enough for date of birth or address proof and it was already said that it is not a proof of citizenship.

In the SC judgement, in a twist, SC made it compulsory for people to link PAN to Aadhar. But even that now seems useless as Aadhar is neither proof of date of birth nor address nor even of citizenship.

Due to this perverse twist, SC, although striking down the need for Aadhar for everyone, indirectly created a back door for the government to require Aadhar.

Income Tax does not come under any subsidy scheme by any stretch of imagination.

The culprit for this twist is none other than Justice D.Y. Chandrachaud (as far as I can remember).

Nathuram Godse and Vikash Yadav, the parallels are uncanny

 


On 30th January 1948, Nathuram Godse fired on Mohandas Karamchand Gandhi, killing him on the spot. He tried to escape but was caught and handed over to the police.

He had a long trial and a case which named many conspirators, including Savarkar, were charged for the murder of Gandhi.

During this entire trial, RSS, disowned Nathuram Godse, although he and his family claimed that he was a member of RSS and a close confidant of Savarkar.

Savarkar escaped sentence as not enough evidence was found against him.

Nathuram Godse was found guilty and sentenced to death.

Cut to the present.

Vikash Yadav was working for CRPF. He was drafted into RAW (Research and Analysis Wing), our governments spy agency.

He was given a task.

That to find a Sikh Separatist leader in US and plan his execution on US soil using a US resource. This is the allegation contained in the FBI indictment on the plot to assassinate the Sikh Leader.

He found one person, a runaway from India, a drug dealer who was living in US in an effort to escape prosecution in India.

The drug dealer, Nkhil Gupta, was approached and given a contract to kill. A cash reward of 100,000 US Dollars was promised.

15,000 US Dollars were paid and this was recorded by FBI agent.

Actually an FBI agent was working on the Indian drug dealer trying to expose him, but the drug dealer thought that FBI agent was a trader and a rogue element like him.

He asked the FBI agent (who was under cover) to arrange a hit on the Sikh Leader.

That is how FBI came to know of this plan.

They trapped Nikhil Gupta and as he tried to escape got him extradited from Europe.

The US Department of Justice indictment names him and Vikash Yadav as the culprits.

Meanwhile, Vikash Yadav was caught trying to extort money from a cafe owner in Delhi. This cafe owner himself was an accused in another extortion attempt and an accused in the eyes of Delhi Police.

Delhi police is run by Home Minister Amit Shah.

Canada too exposed how RAW was involved in killing another Sikh Leader in Canada and named Lawrence Bishnoi's gang and Amit Shah as the people involved in the killing. They claim that they have audio recording of Amit Shah talking about this.

Vikash Yadav was released on interim bail after four months in Tihar. He was later given regular bail with the condition that he should remain in Delhi and that his mobile should remain on all the time.

When the case exploded, Government of India told the US authorities that Vikash Yadav no longer works for the Government. (just like RSS disowned Godse).

Some journalists traced Vikash's village and spoke with his mother. The mother was bewildered and wanted to know how come the government is not doing anything to save Vikash and why he went to jail and why he was fighting for an appointment letter from RAW?

Now it seems that Vikash and his wife both have visited their village.

If that is true, then this is a clear violation of his bail condition, that he should stay in Delhi.

But then Delhi Police is under Amit Shah.

Are you able to connect the dots?

Read this report on the alleged extortion done by Vikash Yadav, how it looks all arranged and framed.

Banks really don't need your deposits.

 

RBI tightens rules for housing finance companies | Zee Business 
 
According to a report in the press, IDFC First Bank's report reads like this;
 
Total Deposits: 2,18,026 Crores
Total Loans: 2,22,613 Crores
 
That shows that IDFC Bank has given loans more than the total sum of deposits its holds.
 
Does that make you wonder how come this has happened or allowed to happen?
 
Well, here is the secret.
 
Any Bank, which has a banking license, does not actually need your money to give loans. Once it has a license, it can borrow from RBI (who is the lender of the last resort).
 
RBI can create money out of thin air. Like RBI did from 2016 to 2023. On 30th December 2016 the total money in the system was 16 Lakh Crores. On 30th December 2024, that became 35 Lakh Crores.
 
RBI is owned by Government of India.
 
RBI gives money to banks as and when they require funds and earns interest on this money, created out of thin air.
 
RBI last year gave a dividend of 2,10,000 Crores to Government of India. All earned out of money created out of thin air.
 
RBI is Government's ATM.
 
Then why do banks take deposits?
 
Banks take deposits because deposits are cheaper than borrowing from RBI. Savings bank rates are as low as 2.7% (SBI).
 
Money lying in current account (where minimum balances are anywhere between 10,000 to 50,000) are interest free.
 
 
So, if everyone withdrew their money from IDFC First Bank, RBI will give the bank all the money they want and prevent the bank from failing!

Saturday, October 26, 2024

26,257 Crore extra income for Center as edibile oil import duty increase kicks in.

edible oil

 Did you notice the rise in the price of edible oils on your last trip to the mall, grocery shop?

In this festive season, when oil consumption soars, the government of India, in its own wisdom, increased customs duty on crude edible oil from 5.5% to 27.5% and on refined edible oil from 13.7% to 35.7%, a jump of 22%.

This had led to an increase in the price of edible oil by almost 30% in retail.

Palm oil, used by most producers like Haldiram, has become 130 Rupees per liter against the earlier price of 100/- Likewise, the price of all edible oils, including sunflower oil have all gone up by around 30%.

Edible oil is consumed by the masses and this increase in customs duty is going to affect them the most.

Already, according to estimates, the poor are spending 52% of their income on food and now this will only add to their food costs.

India imports 119.35 Lakh Metric Tons of edible oil (2023-2024 figure). That translates to 119.35 x 1,000 (Kg) x 1,00,000 = 11,93,50,00,000 Kg.

If you take increase in price of 22 per kg, then this increase translates to 2,62,57,00,00,000 Rupees or 26,257 Crores per year.

The government is going to earn 26,257 Crore extra the next year by increasing this custom duty.

This burden will be borne by the 90% poor and middle class. The rich 10% are anyway not affected by such price rises.

Friday, October 25, 2024

Time to junk Aadhar Card as SC refuses to accept it as proof of Date of Birth?

Aadhaar - Wikipedia 

Did you get an Aadhar Card made?

If yes, how?

You went to the enrollment center with certain documents;

  • Passport.
  • PAN card.
  • Ration or PDS Photo card.
  • Voter Identification card.
  • Driving license of the applicant.
  • Photo identification cards issued by the Government of India/ Service photo ID cards that are issued by a PSU.
  • Job card of MG-NREGS.


And then submitted these documents along with your bio-metric information, that is finger prints and retina scan.

Based on these documents, a Unique ID was generated and you were given a number.

Now the UIDAI had no method or means to verify the documents that you submitted. It did not even check whether these were genuine.

So, if your source documents were fake or altered or digitally modified, the UIDAI issued you another document which basically validated that fake information.

Thus, it does not come as a surprise that SC has junked Aadhar as the source of correct date of birth.

In fact, the whole Aadhar should be junked as it was never based on verified data but based on documents that a person submitted.

The only additional thing that UIDAI did was link your finger prints and retina scan to your existing documents. Both finger prints and retina scans are likely to change over the life of a person. You must have seen people, especially the elderly, struggling to get their finger prints validated during the annual life-certificate submission at banks.

Time the whole document, which has become a dangerous document, especially if someone steals your finger prints, to be trashed.

Using the AEPS (Aadhar Enabled Payment System), if someone uses your finger prints, he can virtually clean out your bank account as such a transaction does not generate an OTP on your phone.

From where can someone get your finger prints?

If you have registered any property document, the same can be lifted from your registered deed or lease agreement.

And if your society is using finger scanner where you have enrolled or your office is using finger scanner, the data can be stolen from there too!

There exists a strong case of doing away with Aadhar. You know what, before coming to power, even Narendra Modi was opposed to Aadhar and used to often castigate Congress from bringing this system. Later he seems have had a change of heart and developed love for Nandan Nilenkeni too!

Thursday, October 24, 2024

The Middle Class is Shrinking, Falling into Poverty

Nestle CMD Suresh Narayanan

 

In a news item, the CMD of Nestle India has said that the middle class is shrinking.

That should be good news for everyone, except that he is not talking about it in a positive way, that the Middle Class is moving to Rich class, he was talking about the erosion of purchasing power of the middle class, pushing it into poverty.

Now why did he say that?

He said this in the light of falling sales for this FMCG giant. His company’s sales volumes have fallen by 1%, whereas usually there is an annual growth that happens.

Thus if you take the annual growth at 3 to 4% for a company as big as Nestle, a fall in growth of 1% year-on-year actually indicates a fall of 4 to 5% in growth numbers.

Although the sales numbers have risen by 3%, they have risen due to increase in prices. There is very little headroom for increasing prices.

The signs for this were all there.

  1. There has been an erosion of savings in the society. We are now at a 50 year low on savings as a function of earning.

  2. Almost any product that you are buying, the price has been maintained but the quantity has reduced. You are paying 10 Rupees for a biscuit packet but the weight has been reduced by 20% or more.

  3. Peronal Loans and Gold Loans are on the rise and people are dipping into their savings to survive and sustain.

  4. Government has been raising taxes on almost everything, making common consumption items expensive.

  5. Petrol, Diesel and Gas prices have been on the rise even when the input costs have come down, leading to higher logistics cost.

  6. The Automobile sector is seeing buildup of inventory at the dealers to an extent of 77,000 Crores. Even Two-Wheeler sales are down.

The effect was to come, sooner or later.

“If the increase in commodity costs can be covered by efficiencies, we would rather not take up the prices. Our long-term model is penetration-led volume growth, so we have to start getting back to it. Any more price increase that we use is going to sharply retract us from that path,” Suresh Narayanan said, responding to a question on price hike.

Also the CMD said that he is seeing growth in e-commerce and quick-commerce segments but he would rather stay with the existing distribution model. The caveat from his statement was that ‘until’ e-commerce and quick commerce are able to replace the distribution network, he would continue with the existing arrangement.

Government wants you to believe that all is well, while the ground reality is that all is in the well.

A shrinking middle class spells doom for the economy. That is why China is doing a massive stimulus of 800 Billion US Dollars. It is injecting this money into to the bottom of the pyramid.

Narendra Modi does not believe in giving ‘Free Ki Rewadi’, and the country does not have the kind of money that can be given to the poor and the middle class. The rich have to be taken care of first as they ensure that Modi remains in power, funding his elections and grand life style.

There is more bad news to come, it is just a matter of time

 


 

Tuesday, October 22, 2024

Constable caught smuggling drugs into a jail in Maharashtra.

https://images.indianexpress.com/2022/11/Taloja-jail-1.jpg

On 10th October, Constable Anil Asaram Jadhav resumed duty for the day at Taloja Central Jail, Navi Mumbai.

He has been serving in this jail for the last five years.

It is a routine practice that all those entering the jail are frisked and their belongings checked before they enter the jail. This is a standard operating procedure which seeks to prevent smuggling of things into the prison.

On this particular day, as Anil was resuming duty, another on-duty constable saw that the tiffin box of Anil had a plastic bag, which had been kept away from inspection.

On checking that bag, it was found that it contained drugs. The total quantity of drugs seized was 123.87 grams of charas worth Rs 8.68 lakh, 2.29 grams of MDMA worth Rs 1 lakh and 40.57 grams of ganja valued at Rs 40,000, along with five rolling papers for smoking ganja.

The total worth of this haul was around 10,00,000 in street value.

Once inside, the value goes up by a factor of 10 to 100. The other day a former prison inmate was telling that an 800 rupee phone costs 1,00,000 inside the prison.

This catch raises some very big questions;

  1. How did the constable finance this purchase?
  2. From where did he buy the drugs? These are not available easily, thus he must be either part of a syndicate that supplies drugs or knows drug dealers.
  3. How long has this been going on?
  4. How are the jail inmates paying him?
  5. Is he being paid in cash or kind, like they do some 'illegal' assignment for him?
  6. If he is being paid in cash, who pays him outside?

Now, the reason being given is that he brought these drugs to supply to drug addicts inside the jail. If that is the case, then why these addicts are not being treated for drug abuse?

All these things become important especially in the light of Lawrence Bishnoi running a 900 member gang from within Sabarmati Jail. 

Is the jail system completely rotten to allow criminals serving their sentence access to modern tools of communication? Lawrence Bishnoi is said to be managing his gang through the use of social media like WhatsApp, Facebook, Telegram, etc.

So, how deep is the rot?

Will any court take suo-motto cognizance of this and initiate a cleanup operation in the jails where they send criminals during trial and after conviction?

 

 

https://akm-img-a-in.tosshub.com/aajtak/images/story/202410/6715c965c46a8-cji-dy-chandrachud-212416560-16x9.jpg?size=1280:720

CJI DY Chandrachaud will be remembered for;

Co-Writing / Co-authoring the Ram Mandir verdict and then not having the guts to sign the verdict.

Calling the Electoral Bonds illegal and then ensuring that neither the money was recovered nor anyone punished.

Calling the Election Officer of Chandigarh elections as a criminal and then not taking any action against him.

Calling the Shinde/Fadnavis/Ajit Pawar Government illegal, the acts of Governor illegal and then allowing the same government to continue for the rest of the term without taking any concrete decision on it, tossing it back to the illegal speaker and allowing him to take decisions that were illegal.

Calling for a probe by a team of 'experts' into the Hindenburg allegations, instead of asking Adani Enterprises to sue Hindenburg in US Courts, instead of making Hindenburg Research as a party to the probe and then accepting the final report of this 'expert' panel as gospel truth and giving Adani Enterprises a clean-chit.

Dragging his feet on the constitutional validity of removal of Article 370 and then deciding that the decision was proper, ignoring the fact that the removal happened when the state assembly, a legal entity that was to be consulted, was in suspended animation and the President of India was ruling the state. This led to a strange situation where the President of India consulted President of India and decided that article 370 should be abrogated.

He will also be remembered in allowing the continued incarceration of Umar Khalid, a man who is being denied bail, because he is neither rich, nor powerful and because he is a Muslim.

He will also be remembered for allowing the accused in Bhima Koregaon case remaining in jail, the death of Father Stan Swamy and the ultimate death of Prof. G.N. Saibaba, in the face of credible forensic evidence that the entire case was false, based on planting of evidence by police and politicians.

These are some of the legacies that he leaves behind.

In the end, opinion will remain divided on whether he did any good for the justice system or failed it.

Yes, in the end, he unveiled the statue of lady justice holding a book and with her eyes open.

Yet, he did not really honor the letter and spirit of the constitution, by delivering justice based not on evidence but on his prayers to god and his direct connect to god, who he believes showed him the right path.

CJI DY Chandrachaud, you will be remembered for all this and more and for the fact that you flattered to deceive.

All of the above is now part of history, which can not be changed, it is water that has flown under the bridge. History will not be kind to you.

Monday, October 21, 2024

 

Here are fifteen top reasons why India will never become a manufacturing hub for the world;

1. Expensive Power, expensive fuel (petrol and diesel) due to high taxation.

Most of the power generation is in private sector now, if not the generation, then distribution is in private sector. Adani is a major player in this sector. Most of the power generation is done using coal in thermal power plants. Adani owns coal mines in Australia from where coal is being imported and is being forced on other power generation companies via an executive order that all coal used in thermal power plants has to have a 20% imported component. Coal that is landing on the east coast has to be sent by cargo to Adani’s west coast port of Kandla, from where it is supplied to thermal power plants across the country, thus adding freight to the already existing cost. All these are policy decisions taken by Modi Government.

Solution: Bring power under Public Sector and switch to renewable sources, cut down on use of coal.

2. Expensive Manpower, coupled with poorly skilled manpower.

Cost of living is very high in India as there is runaway inflation, health care is now in private hands and so is education. The public education system has been systematically destroyed and degraded such that only the poorest of poor are sending their children to government schools. Housing is expensive, transportation costs have gone up because of expensive petrol and diesel. There is toll tax for use of roads almost everywhere. All this makes manpower expensive as living wages are high. The other problem is even the manpower that passes the gates of universities and colleges is unemployable. As per reports 90% of engineering graduates are unfit for work. There is no program for skilling people. The program Skill-India has delivered a still born baby.

Solution: Have free or highly subsidized ITI’s that can do skill training. Government should run these institutes.

3. Expensive Land.

All land is expensive, especially when it is close to ports and inside cities where labor can be sourced easily. This adds to the cost of setting up a project. For the businessman / industrialist, the cost of the project starts the moment they borrow money as there is no grace period for charging of interest. Setting up a manufacturing unit from concept to operation can take anywhere between 6 months to 2 years. By the time production starts and goes commercial, the businessman is already under a lot of financial stress.

Solution: Government should allot land for free or at highly subsidized rates, like it is done by various state Industrial Development Corporations. Government should create all support infrastructure, like roads, transport planning for raw material, finished material and manpower.

4. Poor Design Facilities

Every business house / industrialist has to set up his own design and development facility. This is not the case in China where common design and development facilities are available. Because of this, the cost of putting out a new design is prohibitive.

Solution: Government should set up design and development centers where businessmen and industrialist can bring their designs and do rapid prototyping thus reducing the cost of setting up individual design centers. These design centers should be equipped with latest high power computers and 3D Printers and should allow design to die cycle.

5. Heavy Taxation.

India is one of the worst country as far as taxation is concerned. There is 24% corporate tax and up to 33% personal income tax. On top of that almost everything is under Goods and Services Tax which ranges from 5% to 28%. These taxes make living cost expensive and is theft of labor. Taxes are taking away money that usually was ending up as saving. Banks have been forced to offer higher interest rates to mop up funds for lending.

Solution: Go easy on taxing the common man, go aggressive on taxing the rich and luxury products. If possible, do away with personal income tax and take only indirect tax via GST regime.

6. Rampant Corruption top to bottom. Local Politicians and Goons too.

There is corruption everywhere. Nothing moves without money being paid. Recently the BJP government of Karnataka, which lost the elections, was accused of 40% corruption and that too by its own members who were business owners. Corruption adds to the cost of doing business and also leads to substandard products. Narendra Modi’s tall claims that corruption has ended are all but gas. The Karnataka Government Contractors Association went public with their allegations and was willing to provide proof of corruption.

Solution: The fountainhead of corruption is the corrupt and expensive election system. BJP has been taking Electoral Bonds and also extorting money misusing ED and CBI (as per allegations) from businessmen and industrialists. Those who don’t comply are raided and harassed by ED, CBI and Income Tax Department. This is nothing but tax terrorism. Election Commission should reduce the upper limit of money being spent on election to 2 Lakhs for MLA and 5 Lakhs for MP. Only then will the rot stop.

7. High Finance costs and corruption in getting finance.

Bank interest rates are high, ranging between 10 to 14% for businessmen. Compare this with 4 to 6% in China. Indian businesses can not compete with such high interest rates. Also, there is rampant corruption in getting loans sanctioned. Bribes are common, other than that many other inducements have to be given to get a loan sanctioned.

Solution: Ensure interest rates for businessmen and industrialists are in the same range as China / US and let there be a grace period for charging interest from disbursement to start of production.

8. Expensive Raw Material.

Raw material costs are high because of many factors, wages, transportation, expensive land, corruption in allocation of resources (for extraction of raw material). All of these add up to the cost of the product. Our products end up being expensive as compared to similar products from China. Why would anyone buy from us when the Chinese products are better designed and cheaper?

Solution: Address each part of the problem, reduce living costs such that wages can be brought in line, reduce taxes on petrol, diesel such that transportation can become cheaper, allocate resources in transparent manner keeping national interest uppermost in mind.

9. Crony Capitalism

Only a handful of businessmen and industrialists are capturing most of the industry. Government policies are created for them (and some say by them for themselves!). This is also because these businessmen and industrialists finance the government, the ruling political party to ensure continuity of their favored positions. Over the last 10 years, the SME (Small and Medium Enterprises) sector has been completely destroyed due to this crony capitalism. SME Sector is the larges job creator in India, no more.

Solution: Ensure wider participation for all businessmen and industrialists. Encourage the SME sector with liberal loans, lands and other incentives. Protect and nourish this sector.

10. Bureaucratic Red Tape.

It is almost impossible to set up a business / industry in the country. There is so much red tape that it becomes difficult to cross all hurdles. In China they have a single window approach. Here once again corruption in all departments ensure that it takes ages for setting up a business and bringing it online.

Solution: Take the Single Window approach. The businessman should not have to approach anyone other than a single point of contact within the government. All clearances should be obtained through this single window.

11. Poor Policy Framework.

Government has a poor policy framework. This is because of crony capitalism and the policies being created by the rich for the rich. The government is just allowing anything to go.

Solution: Take everyone on board. There is enough for everyone but not enough for the greed of the top 100-1000 businessmen and industrialists.

12. Industrialists and Businessmen being looked as source of loot.

Everyone looks are industrialists and businessmen as sources of funds. They want your money by hook or crook. They think that the industrialists are rolling in money (indeed some are due to policies, but they are adequately protected), and everyone is trying to extract money from the businessman.

Solution: Have a better law and order system which ensures that businessmen and industrialists don’t suffer from illegal extortion.

13. Expensive Logistics and Warehousing Costs.

Petrol, Diesel prices being high, leads to high logistics costs, add to that the cost of labor which has to live in the same space as everyone else and even paying living wages is adding to the cost. With land being expensive, setting up warehousing is an expensive proposition. Most of the warehousing is at far flug places, adding to the transportation costs for every product produced and delivered.

Solution: Have a re-look at the warehousing policy, allow warehouses closer to the population, reduce taxes on petrol, diesel.

14. Poor Management Policies.

In companies, most of the labor is on contract basis. This has become possible due to lax government policies and corruption in those who run labor unions. Also, absence of jobs leads to availability of labor that can be taken on contract rather than on the payroll. There are people willing to work even on contract. This creates lower wage situation for the workers and also there is no safety net for them in case the organization fails.

Solution: Ensure worker protection and fair wages through strict implementation of policies that favor the worker.

15. No External Focus and no attempt to serve the world.

Indian businessmen and industrialists live in a protected market and this is a huge market. Thus, they produce substandard quality of goods that sell because superior quality goods are being made expensive through customs duties and taxes.

As the businessmen and industrialists have a captive market, they are not expanding to address the international market, nor are they improving their designs or doing innovation. This has led to their focus being only on domestic consumption. In turn this leads to poor quality of products which don’t have an international market. Also, the cost of products is high as per reasons given above, making products made in India expensive compared to China. For the international consumer or even Indian consumer, his first loyalty is to his wallet, thus these substandard products are falling off the radar both nationally and internationally.

Solution: If all the problems listed above were addressed then Indian businessmen and industrialists can start to concentrate on exports and that will help the nation in bringing in foreign exchange and also lead to rise in our economic power across the world.

Sunday, October 20, 2024

 Fight against corruption | Daily Excelsior

 

Here are fifteen top reasons why India will never become a manufacturing hub for the world;

  1. Expensive Power, expensive fuel (petrol and diesel) due to high taxation.
  2. Expensive Manpower, coupled with poorly skilled manpower.
  3. Expensive Land.
  4. Poor Design Facilities
  5. Heavy Taxation.
  6. Rampant Corruption top to bottom. Local Politicians and Goons too. Agencies being misused for extortion and forcing people into paying bribes.
  7. High Finance costs and corruption in getting finance.
  8. Expensive Raw Material.
  9. Crony Capitalism.
  10. Bureaucratic Red Tape.
  11. Poor Policy Framework.
  12. Industrialists and Businessmen being looked as source of loot.
  13. Expensive Logistics and Warehousing Costs.
  14. Poor Management Policies.
  15. No External Focus and no attempt to serve the world.


There are other reasons too but to my mind these are the top 15.

Please do add your input and share personal experience that you have doing business or running an industry in India.

Thursday, October 17, 2024

 Next year we are going to add 12.5 Million Air-Conditioner to our already over heated environment.


Read my take on this at the following link.


China is going to spend 71,40,000 Crores to stimulate its economy!

China Unleashes Broad Stimulus Package to Revive Economy

The Government in People's Republic of China has decided to spend 850 Billion US Dollars from its kitty to stimulate its own economy.

In terms of Indian Rupees, that works out to 71,40,000 Crores.

In contrast, the total reserve of foreign exchange in India is just 700 Billion US Dollar.

This is being done to give a push to the domestic economy that has been lagging.

Suddenly, a huge demand is going to emerge as people at large are given money.

Whenever people get money, they do either of the two, spend or save. When they spend, they create demand for goods and services and this increases the GDP of the country. 

If they save, then the money sits in the banking sector and is available for lending to those who can productively use money to set up enterprises and grow the economy by providing more goods and services and jobs.

The basic difference between what has been happening in India and China is that the Chinese Government has decided to pump the money into the bottom of the pyramid, from where it will travel upwards to those who produce goods and services.

In India, the government has been giving reckless reliefs and concessions to the rich class with the result that the economy is deprived of wide scale purchasing power. The rich are just 10% and out of that too, the wealth is concentrated in the hands of top 1%.

Even if this 1% was to spend, they would not be able to have a wide impact on the economy. Secondly, they don't spend on mass produced goods and services, they are spending only on luxury and third is that it is their money they are spending thus the decision to spend or not spend lies with them. 

The stimulus in China is going to increase consumption at a wide level.

That is why, in expectation of a booming market and its consequent effect on the stock exchanges, investors have started to divest in countries like India and have started moving their money to China.

The Foreign Financial Institutions (FII's) have been selling equity holdings in India and taking their money to China.

The question is, will India too go for a financial stimulus?

Chances are dim.

Tuesday, October 15, 2024

How Government killed BSNL

How long will BSNL be able to take the blows and remain in the ring? 

This is how Government killed BSNL;

  • First, it allowed it to bid for 4G Spectrum, then for no reason, it asked BSNL to take back the money and did not allot it any 4G Spectrum.
  • Then it allotted it 4G Spectrum.
  • Then it told BSNL that for 'security' reasons, it has to buy 4G equipment only from an Indian vendor.
  • Government knew very well that there was no 4G equipment vendor who could provide equipment to BSNL.
  • The contract was awarded to TCS.
  • TCS failed to meet several deadlines to develop and deliver the equipment.
  • BSNL continued to work with 3G technology and kept losing customers to Jio, Airtel and Vodafone.
  • Then the competition, Jio and Airtel moved on to 5G technology.
  • BSNL lost more customers with each passing month.

Now, TCS has finally delivered on 4G equipment and BSNL has started rolling out 4G in parts of India. The damage has been permanently done. First was the poor perception of a Government owned company and second was the delays in technology.

News today is Airtel and Jio have placed multi billion dollar orders on Erricson, Nokia and Samsung to purchase 5G eqipment

BSNL, the company owned by the citizens, I and you, is not yet ready with 4G.

It will take another few years before BSNL moves to 5G.

By that time, it will be almost without any customers.

By the way, Government now holds 23% equity in Vodafone, the company that has more then 3,00,000 Crore as debt and is tottering on the verge of failure.

But Government will not allow BSNL to use the Vodafone network although it is the single largest share holder in Vodafone and with more dues likely to get converted into equity may become the main share holder in Vodafone.

This is how Narendra Modi's government has killed BSNL for the benefit of Jio and Airtel.

Soon, Gautam Adani may make a bid for BSNL and it might get sold for a song and people will be told that it is good for them as the company was 'loss-making'.

What they will not tell you is that Narendra Modi's government killed it.

Yeh Baat Kuch Hazam Nahi Hui Sir

Image used for representational purposes


The Eknath Shinde/Fadnavis/Ajit Pawar Government decided to waive off toll for Light Motor Vehicles beginning midnight of 14th October 2024.

The model code of conduct for elections announced in Maharashtra too kicked in at the same time.

 It is another attempt at swaying the voters to vote for Mahayuti Sarkar of Shinde/Fadnavis/Pawar.

In a statement, Eknath Shinde claimed that this was not being done keeping the elections in mind.

Of course, all the 38 ground breaking ceremonies, all the schemes, like the Ladki Behna Scheme, all the sops have got nothing to do with elections.

What wonders is that why all of this is happening in the last 30 days of the existence of this ‘illegal’ government?

The Supreme Court had categorically called this government ‘illegal’ but refrained from pulling it down, leaving the decision to the speaker, Rahul Navekar. The speaker dragged his feet for two years and then said that all MLA’s remain qualified even when they had broken all rules of anti-defection law. Those who defected were allowed to continue and those who continued to remain in the old outfit were allowed to continue too! The breakaway party was given the official tag by the election commission and those who remained back, defying the whip of the breakaway party, were also not disqualified!

Ostensibly, Eknath Shinde claimed that he was worried about the delays on the toll booth face by car owners and therefore took the decision. He is not interested in the chair (sic) but only interested in the interest of the people.

As per contract between the Government and the Toll Operator, all losses incurred by this decision will have to be borne by the Maharashtra Government.

It is estimated that 2,80,000 Light Motor Vehicles pay toll every day. Calculated at 90 Rupees for a round trip, the amount works out to 2.5 Crores per day or 919.8 Crores every year.

According to official data, the loss is just 50 Lakhs per day, which defies all calculations. Even if one was to consider 2,80,000 vehicles at 45 Rupees per day, the amount comes to 1.2 Crores per day and not 50 Lakh as officially claimed.

The toll concession was given for 16 years for 2100 Crores. Assuming that just 1 Crore was collected every day for 16 years, the amount comes to 1 Crore x 16 Years x 365 Days = 5,840 Crores. The MEP (Mumbai Entry Point) Company walked away with 3,740 Crores (after kickbacks and bribes of course).

Earlier this money was being paid by those who were using the roads, now it will be paid by everybody in the state as now this money will be paid by the State Government from its own tax collection taken from those who live in Maharashtra. That man in Latur too will pay for this decision as will the people of Pune.

It is a good move anyway. The cost of flyover / bridge construction has been recovered a long time back but the toll was continuing. It was a long pending demand of the citizens of Mumbai. Toll plaza’s were leading to traffic snarls and wastage of precious fuel which is an imported commodity.

Although the removal is good, it would have been better that the government had cancelled the toll contracts and removed the toll plaza’s all together by paying off the toll operators their dues. That would have been a better one-time solution.

This attempt to appease the voters and then claiming that this has nothing to do with the elections makes one say, ‘Yeh Baat Kuch Hazam Nahi Hui’.

And this article confirms the fact that Toll has not been done away with, it has only been transferred from the vehicle owners to all the citizens of Maharashtra.


 

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The Pawarification of Indian Politics.

  Maharashtra State elections have thrown up surprising results, results that have defied all opinion polls and even surprised the winnin...